Call the date of the first rain in advance...

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Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby zippetydude » Tue Oct 18, 2016 9:54 pm

Okay, so even though it feels like it will never rain again in California, or at least here in Southern California, it's gotta come sooner or later. Anyone wanna hazard a guess as to the first real storm? By real storm I mean more than a little drizzle, let's say a storm that will drop at least 1/2" of rain. I'll be brave and throw my prediction out there...November 2nd. For no particular reason, just going with a hunch. It seems that those crazy weather-obsessed guys have gone away to fight amongst themselves nowadays so I am hoping this thread is safe here with the usual crew of sane people... :wink:

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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby drndr » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:22 am

Hmmm. A half inch in Riverside? Palm Springs? or Flatrock? :) I'll say the 5th of Nov since that is when a group of us were thinking of doing skyline and will force us to change our plans unfortunately.
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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby Andy » Thu Oct 20, 2016 7:28 am

Wait are you guys referring to THIS year? :lol:

Put me down for Nov 12th. I plan to be on the mountain the 13th, so that would be glorious
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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby Wildhorse » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:32 pm

It looks like it could happen as soon as Monday. Accuweather is showing about a 60% chance for .2 inches in the Idyllwild/Pine Cove area. Could be more at higher elevations. Or as we know, could be nothing anywhere.

About 14 years ago I remember a very heavy rain in early November - about 8 inches. I wish we would have such rain this year.

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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby zippetydude » Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:07 pm

The sooner we get the rain the better. Monday would be great. BTW I remember a certain cut-off low that stayed and dumped a ton of snow at my home in Yucaipa in 2005. We usually get a light dusting, but that year it looked like this!

Here's looking down on my neighborhood from a nearby hill:

ImageB0000406 by zippetydude, on Flickr

My backyard with my kids' playhouse dressed up in white

ImageB0000331 by zippetydude, on Flickr

There was enough snow to make an igloo!

ImageB0000349 by zippetydude, on Flickr

I remember that year springs popped up in seemingly random places all over San Gorgonio. It was an awesome year. I guess there's some chance of it happening again...

So, thus far we have Wildhorse with a possible Monday, October 24, z with Nov 2, drndr with Nov 5 and Andy with Nov 12. Plenty of open spaces left if anyone else wants to hazard a guess. :wink:

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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby Perry » Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:59 pm

I think Wildhorse has this one. The rain here in the desert is impressive. I'm pretty sure that some place in SoCal will record over half an inch.
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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby Wildhorse » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:38 pm

We can thank Accuweather for a good forecast.

I am so glad to hear about impressive rain in the desert. I would also like to hear about Idyllwild and the tram, and the San Bernardino mountains.

I was in Upland yesterday afternoon with a good view of the mountains around Baldy. The sky was very dark and looked like it was raining in the mountains. We had some rain in the valley between about 3 and 5 PM. Then last night in Claremont, thunder woke me a little before 5AM. Between then and about 7AM it rained a lot, sometimes hard rain. I don't know if it rained at other times too.

Does anyone know where to get get data on historical rainfall amounts?
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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby jfr » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:42 pm

Wildhorse wins! 1.06 inches at the upper tram station. Link

Looks like the San Bernardino Mountains got even more rain, however.

Here's a page to get historical data on the MSJC1 (RAWS) weather station
http://mesonet1.agron.iastate.edu/sites ... tion=MSJC1
My (collected) trip reports: http://hikingtales.com/
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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby Ellen » Tue Oct 25, 2016 9:32 am

Howdy All,

I can confirm that the mountain station received an impressive amount of precipitation yesterday.

Image

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Re: Call the date of the first rain in advance...

Postby zippetydude » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:23 am

Well, wasn't that a nice surprise! With over an inch at the upper tram and even more over on San G?! Wow. Good call Wildhorse. I was feeling pessimistic about our chances and then it just went crazy in Redlands, raining hard off and on for 2 - 3 hours with plenty of lightning and thunder. Ellen, I'm glad you all made it down safely. The tram is extraordinarily exposed in that sort of situation so it must have been kind of scary! Now let's see what Friday will bring...

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